Transcript
This isn't your average business podcast, and he's not your average host. This is The James Altucher Show. Today on The James Altucher Show. Now here's the thing in the middle that I might have sided towards, which is this. We know that it predominantly fatalities predominantly happen for people over 60 or 65. What I might have done, and I might have gotten killed, but nevertheless as president, is I would have acted quickly and said those over 60 no longer leave the house. You're quarantined. You don't go to work. I don't care what you do. You're quarantined. Those under 60 continue to go, but social distance the best that you can. Maybe even wear masks. Not to save you, but in case you've got it and you're spreading it. Right? And you won't know that you have it. Right? If we did that, I believe that the death rate, the fatality rate would be approximately what it's going to be this way, and you wouldn't have shut down any of the economy. In fact, restaurants would still be open. You'd you'd, you know, you'd be distancing. You'd have to separate the tables more. You'd, you know, you'd have to rethink it. Maybe the prices would go up, but but we would have gotten used to that normal for a period of time, and the older people who are more likely to die, predominantly more likely to die, you've seen the stats in New York City, would be safe at home, you know, where they need to be. And, it wouldn't have been perfect, but we might have ended up in a close to similar place. Yeah. So I think policy decisions are gonna have to be different going forward because they're gonna see this is just too much. It's too much damage. But I hope we take some lessons from this about what went wrong and what went right. But, you know, politics, I I I would put in the down category, so that's always been in the down category, unfortunately. So who knows? Everyone's gonna be thumping their chest like we won, but there's a lot of there's a lot of debriefing that needs to happen. In the future, we will have better tools. And I think in the future, we'll be better prepared far better prepared to launch vaccines and get them to market in 6 months, not in vaccines and get them to market in 6 months, not in 12 to 18. 12 to 18 is still a record, but it needs to be 6 or 3 or 2. We need to have rapid protocols to do so. We need to use AI to find the best candidates. I mean, you know, you know, we you know, and I think we'll be better prepared for that in the future. So always good comes of these things, but 10, maybe $20,000,000,000,000 hit to the world economy is we've we've never seen anything like it. World War 2 didn't have that kinda hip. Right? We don't know what this is like, but we'll figure it out, and we're gonna get to the other side. It's gonna be fine. It's it because that's how humans are. Right? You come out the other side. You figure it out. We're gonna be fine. Joining me once again on the podcast is the super smart, super intelligent, super genius, Kevin Sarris. He's an expert in AI. He's built and sold AI companies. He runs an AI company right now, an artificial intelligence company. And AI is gonna be one of the big movers and shakers in the new normal once we get back to this new economy. And we talk about that and other things that are gonna be happening and that we can expect in the new normal. You know, given the fact that we're in the in in in the middle of what we're in the middle of, it's great. Yeah. I mean, on the one hand, it's a shutdown, and on the other hand, it's a pause. And there's lots of things to do when when there's a pause. Well, the funny thing is is, and we can talk about this on the thing. Right? My my wife is running her company from here too. She runs a public company, $1,000,000,000 public company. Right? And she is just as productive as she's ever been. I'm just as productive as I've ever been. And and people are saying, well, what are you doing with all your extra free time? I don't have any free time. I'm still working. She's she's working in a, you know, an office on the other side of the house. Right? So we don't see each other. We both go to work. Is it weird? Like, I feel like, actually, the days have become shorter. I feel like it's almost impossible to get done all the things I need to get done each day. The days are shorter, and part of it is that we're not like, for us, we're not getting in the car or anything, right, where we'd normally maybe go to an office. And so, work starts at, you know, 7 AM and doesn't finish until someone's knocking on the door saying, can we eat now? Yeah. So so, you know, I don't know what changed other than I'm working more. I know. That's the thing is because I'm not wasting time traveling to meetings, I filled up the time. I I in the beginning of this, I felt like, oh, I've got well, actually, we should just I guess Jay's recording this, but Yeah. Kick it off. So we started. In the beginning of this, I felt like, oh, I would have all this extra time. This is gonna be great. But then I very quickly filled in all the extra time. And even 1 or 2 extra things, like, oh, I'm gonna do this project. Well, that's an extra 3 hours a day that I I that I thought would be 1 hour, but it's 3 hours. Add 2 of those, and that's the whole day. That that's right. Actually, everybody's filling up their time. You know, look. This is hard on non tech workers. Right? Those of us sort of in tech or writers or whatever or futurist, however, whatever we're doing, can do that from home, actually, maybe more efficiently than meeting. And we're learning to use the the the online video tools, much better. Obviously, those of us who went through 9 11, you know, did a lot of Skype and realized it was horrible, but there was best we could do with low bandwidth and lousy compression and limited CPU, blah, blah, blah. Well, these I mean, the platform we're on today is stunningly good. The bandwidth, I've got a gigabit a second here. Right? And so bandwidth isn't an issue. CPU isn't an issue. And so all of a sudden, this is quite good compared to what we had just, 5 or 10 or 20 years ago. Which leads me into, and and, by the way, I'll do the intro afterwards. It'll appear before. But which leads me into, you did a great article, recently about the post COVID world. So I'd like to discuss that, if you don't mind. Yeah. No. I'd I'd I'd love to. It got tens of thousands of reads. So but we love it when people read something that you're right as you know. Yeah. And and, obviously, everybody is doing a lot of thinking about this. I think I think a lot of your predictions are are dead on, and and maybe there's a few more that we can do. But let's let's just go down the list. First off, by the way, how's your business during this time where it seems like the entire economy is upside down before we get into the list? Yeah. Yeah. It's a great question. So so, my my my wife runs a, a public company, now running from home. Name of the company is called Silk Road Medical, and, they produce a a, a direct access carotid artery stent procedure, basically. And so, and so, you know, I sort of get to see her operating a a large public company from from home and interacting, and she is having as many meetings as she's ever had. And, and, of course, we're at at at at Advance. And and, the other boards I'm on, you know, we're executing our our plans. And it turns out that, some businesses are, you know, somewhat immune to this sort of shutdown. Like, if you're the restaurant business, this is a really bad thing. If you're in the hotel business, it's really bad. But if you're writing and putting articles out, it's as good as it's ever been. If you're in tech and producing software, in our case, at at Avance, obviously, working on advanced, you know, sort of AI for for finding bugs in software, Turns out business is just as good as it's ever been. In fact, for our partners, it's excellent. So our big partners, you know, big consulting firms, PwC, Deloitte, etcetera, things like that, right, without naming specific. Their business is great, and they still have to test and and and be sure that software is working for their clients. And so they're still out buying and and and and moving, and our business is is is up, not down. Fascinating. Really? So so you so you find that people that companies in the tech space didn't necessarily take a pause. Their their budgets were still operational. They were still making buying decisions on, you know, kind of elective products. Here's what we found, is that the some companies like ecommerce. Right? If you're not on the frontline of ecommerce, like you're not Amazon or Walmart or whatever, again, without mentioning names, some of our clients have had to really pull back because the type of ecommerce they do was completely wiped out during this period of time. Like what? Let's say cars would be an example. Right? You know, if you're if you if you trade used cars online, you're probably not moving any cars right now. It's just that nobody can go see them. You can't you know, it's so so some things are in in in in real dire straits. But if you're Amazon and you're trying to hire a 100,000 plus people because, you know, you can't, you you can't service your your clients, All I have to do is say Instacart, DoorDash, etcetera. Have you tried to order something from Instacart? Good luck. You can't get on. I mean, people are saying, I don't wanna go to the grocery store, but I have no choice because I've tried for 3 weeks to buy groceries online. There's there's no deliveries. So they can't hire fast enough. Right? So some businesses are up, some businesses are down, and some businesses will never come back. And those are probably, you know, some of the weaker ones, and some are just taking a pause. So most of our businesses are are are large businesses and much of our sales at Advanced is through partners, and those partners already have long, long term relationships with their clients. And their clients are still executing their plan to move to more AI and sort of less testing with people and and better test results of software. So that progress towards DevOps and DevQA ops, etcetera, it's just marching forward. So some small companies have had a cutback budgets, but the larger ones, I don't I don't I don't see that. These items are one budgeted and then 2 actually pay for themselves very quickly. Like, the ROI on an advance purchase is months, you know, some number of months. And and in a year, it's it might be 5 or 10 times what you would have spent otherwise to find the same bugs, if that makes sense. Yeah. No. So, so that's interesting. And and you've got you've had a bird's eye view of what industries are kind of, you know, slowing more than most and what industries are kind of picking up. And I think that probably my guess is that plus all of your experiences as an entrepreneur has motivated, the the choices you made in this article about the the post COVID world. And the first item you pick, which I I agree with, and I'd like to brainstorm on this for a second. You say movie theaters Yep. Down, and you say theaters may never return to the record levels of 2019. And I a 100% agree. I I it's sad. Right? It's kinda sad because you and I grew up in an era, certainly, where going to movies was a very cool thing. Right? But but, movie theaters have hung on a little longer than they probably should have. I hate to say that. Not because we don't like it, but because we do have a digital delivery platform now that can deliver 4 k into almost everyone's home, you know, through whatever platform. Right? Through through a 100 networks right now, that you can buy from, you know, from Hulu to Disney Plus to Netflix to Amazon Prime, etcetera. And and the the studios only get about half the ticket price or less from a movie theater. Right? So they're getting, call it, $6 ahead. Well, if I, as a studio, could instead come out with a a film and charge you $19 and sell just as many seats direct to you as as I do in the movie theater, I'm gonna make 2 or 3 times more. So Well, let me let me ask about that because there's a there's a couple assumptions there. Yes. So one is if the movie theater is going direct, when I'm sitting at home and going direct. Studio. Yeah. The the the studio is going indirect. When I when I sit at home and I look at my content choices, there's a a 1,000,000,000 possible choice. Even if I'm just looking at TV choices, there's a 1,000,000,000 possible choices. Whereas if I say to myself, oh, I wanna go out to the movies, there's only 4 choices, you know, depending on where I live. Right. So so there's more competent so I might not sell as many tickets if I was a movie studio, as opposed to putting them in the theaters. So it remains to be seen. So so let's look at it this way. The music industry went through this, you know, 15, 20 years ago. Right? And and, of course, they were in the business of selling CDs. Turns out they weren't, but they thought they were. And what and then CD sales, you know, plummeted as as we went online to purchase our music, quote, unquote purchase, but rent our music, so to speak, for 99¢ a song. And it took a long time for the record industry to absorb that change because it lowered their revenue. And in time, they made them a dollar 29 a song and this and that. But in time, that got usurped completely by streaming. And when streaming hit, they said it's the end of our business. But what did they do? They eventually figured out the right licensing deal and the right pricing for streaming services, where streaming services could charge a certain amount a month, and the studios would get what they needed. So studio revenues have been going up the last 3 years, and now 80% of the revenue is from streaming. 80% is from streaming, a small percent, about 10%, 10 to 15% is from purchases online, that is, iTunes. I I buy the song, quote, unquote, for a dollar 29. And then, about 5% is CDs. Very, very small percentage. In fact, most people can't find their CD player anymore. So the Yeah. I didn't know CDs still exist. They still make them. In fact, LPs this year outsold CDs for the first time in 30 years. What's what's, what's an LP? Oh, no. Oh, yeah. Right. Vinyl actually outsold CDs You kidding? No. I'm not kidding because people are willing to pay 20 or $30 for vinyl to put it on a record player because there's a certain feeling about watching that record turn and play for 20 minutes. And, this is absolutely true. This is the 1st year vinyl has outsold CDs in, you know, 20 to 30 years. So Oh my gosh. So what happened? Revenues are actually up. Revenues are up, but it took them years to figure out what the right licensing and promotional model would be for streaming services and how to get on the right playlists. Right? But they did. So revenues are up over the last few years because of streaming. So this is gonna happen with with movies as well because the technology wins every time. Right? It just takes time to get the business model to work. The technology is already winning. That is we can sit down and watch a Netflix, you know, produced movie today and and and absolutely love it, you know, as as you know. And many and some of them now, you know, they stick into the movie theater for a day so that over a week or something so they can go to the Academy Awards. But the fact is is the technology is not our holdup anymore. We could get 4 k stream to us. So if the technology is in the holdup, again, what's the holdup? Well, the business model has to has to morph. Well, the business model is going to morph, and they're gonna find the right price point and the right promotion so that whatever the price is, 10, 15, 20, $25, you'll go, I wanna I wanna be one of the first ones to watch this movie, and I'm gonna see it, you know, 8 or 10 or 12 weeks ahead of when I could rent it for $5. And I'm willing to pay the $19 because I wanna see this today. And they're gonna figure out that model. They're going to figure out that model because everyone else I I wonder if, both quality and production cost will change. Meaning, you know, instead of it might not make economic sense to spend $300,000,000 on another super superhero franchise. Instead, there might be more kind of high quality indie movies. It reminds me of, like, let's say, the mid nineties or the mid seventies where we saw different spikes in interest in indie movies before. You know, there's there's always been kind of this cycle between indie and heartfelt and dramatic movies versus, big budget special effects franchise movies like Well well you know, the avengers and so on. Of course. Or Star Wars or whatever. What what what's interesting is if we look at Netflix, okay, as a movie producer, as a content producer, Disney number 1, Netflix number 2 in terms of expenditures right now. Over 10,000,000,000 a year producing content, and some of their content cost a $100,000,000 to produce. You know, like the Martin Scorsese film that they had on this year that was, you know, amazing and had all those stars. It was a $100,000,000 production in a drama, like a 3 hour drama, but it was a drama. So, you know, the data doesn't show that yet. The data shows people are gonna be willing to spend whatever it takes to get that audience. The only thing that will change is do I get in a car, go to a theater, buy my popcorn, end up spending, who knows, you know, $75 for 2 people, right, between popcorn and a hot dog and and the and the movie and the, you know, and then the, you know, half hour driving there and parking and getting there early and getting in line, whatever it is. Right? Or do I just push the button and watch that 4 k presentation on my television, make some popcorn for a dollar 29, and enjoy it? I'm gonna bet over time people side with number 2 because Yeah. They just do. Convenience. You know what? Jobs taught us convenience trumps all. Convenience trumps all. Right? Yeah. And and, you know, on on the one hand, there's some change in customer behavior that has to happen. So for instance, often date night for either whether it's a first date or a couple just trying to get out on a Friday night, date night is often go to the movies. But I do think people aren't gonna be as eager to sit, you know, in a you know, basically, movie theaters you could think of as germ filled, and people are gonna be a lot more sensitive, to that. And so there's gonna be all this social distancing behavior that's gonna stick with us for a while or maybe forever in this new normal. Right. And I think movie theaters are not conducive towards that. And I just noticed with with my wife, for instance, I don't know. I've I've been to Central Park in New York City for the first time in 25 years during this during this period because my wife and I take walks to stay healthy and to get outside once a day. And so rather than go to a movie, people might actually do things that involve conversation or something healthy or whatever. I I I think that's right. I I think that's right. And especially if you can save all the extra time, call it an hour and a half. Again, driving there, getting there early, buying the stuff, etcetera. I can just watch the movie at home in an hour and a half and be done, and and and and and we're already hugging. So Right. We don't have to get in the car to wreck the mood, and and there's no plague. And and interesting, like, your next one your next, thing for this post COVID economy is related to this, and I agree with it also. Netflix down Yeah. Which is not as obvious, but but I'll I'll agree in the sense that, first off, we haven't even seen we've we've barely seen the introduction of Disney plus. We haven't yet seen the introduction of HBO Max, which is kind of HBO turned into Netflix, and and and that's gonna be very powerful. I just think there's gonna be so much competition and no and just like just like many things. You know, like, when you when I buy a book, I don't think to myself, oh, this is a Simon and Schuster book versus this is a a Random House book. Like, I never know who the publisher is. I focus on the content, the author, and so on. And I think the same thing's gonna happen. You're not gonna care what platform it is. You're just gonna hear about some show from your friends, and you're gonna be your your mind is gonna be platform independent. So the more competition there is to Netflix, the worse it is for Netflix. Well, that's the problem. So so, look, Netflix was a monopoly for the longest period of time, and then Amazon Prime showed up and started at least putting movies out there and eventually generating their own content. Then there were 2. And Apple TV, a little bit to an extent, though a little late, clearly is getting in the game, and they're willing to write big checks for content. Well, now NBC, the Peac**k Network is gonna have their own. Disney plus is on fire, right, as we know, in terms of subscribers. We've never seen any any kind of subscription go like this. CBS, because of, its Star Trek fan franchise and Picard and all that, is doing very well. And, and Hulu and now YouTube, you know, plus and sort of all these things. So we're going from an era of 3 years ago where there was kind of 1 player to an era where, essentially, it's cable TV, except we have to put it together ourselves and pay them all individually, which suggests, by the way, again, there will be a cable that puts it all together for you in a package and you just pay you pay your $250 a month and it all comes to you, which will I suspect we'll all go back to. But but, nevertheless, Netflix can only go down, not because it's not a well run company. It's an amazingly well run company, and they have amazing content. It's just because we're going from a near monopoly to at least a dozen major players, and people are just not gonna write a dozen checks every month. They're gonna pick the ones that are most important, and they're gonna say, it's fine. It's good enough. Yeah. I suppose, you know, one way to analyze it is who is you know, per dollar spent, which of these companies are making the most hits? And that will sort of tell you the winner. So, historically, on cable, you have companies like HBO Mhmm. Which seem to you know, every show becomes a hit almost, or 50% of their shows are hits. Whereas Netflix, it might be something like 1 out of 20. And, you know, that might be one way to analyze this. But is there ever a tipping point where there's just too much content, and we're like, oh my god. I can't even there's a 100 new sitcoms on Netflix. I can't I can't deal. It there already is too much content. You know? You don't know. They come out with, like, 50 some 50 or 60 new shows a year. We don't see them because we find the ones that our friends say, oh, you gotta see this and, you know, you watch that. And then you finally get into Mozart in the jungle and they cancel it, and they don't tell you why. Right? It just aggravates you, because there's no ratings that that we get to see. So so I think, we're already overloaded with content. There there is way too much there's way more TV than I ever wanna watch in my life. Right? In fact, there's already more shows that that that you would tell me right now. You say I mean, tell me the top 3 or 4 shows that you like right now that are on streaming networks. Well, it's it's funny because I think there was a golden era of television from 2,005 or 2,003 to about 2012. So I've just recently re binge watched, breaking bad, lost, and mad men. Well, lost. It's it's a It's amazing. Lost is my lost, Battlestar Galactica, breaking bad, and mad men are probably my top four favorite shows of all time. Yeah. Not counting some sitcoms. I I love sitcoms. But there's there's there's not really that many new new shows on these platforms where where I'm dying to see. And like you said, I could get committed to a Mozart in the jungle, and then it'll get canceled. And I'll feel I'll feel left out. Like, I feel I'll feel like, I don't wanna make an emotional commitment to this. Like, imagine if you had made an emotional commitment to Breaking Bad, and then after season 1 or Lost. And after season 1, it was just canceled for no reason. That would have broke my heart. I know. Well, fortunately, Lost, they allow the story arc to finish. Right? And what you could decide if it makes sense in the last episode or not. But nevertheless I love the I love the last episode. It's a great episode. It does leave you thinking because some people have of course, said, you know, well, it was all a dream or it never happened or it did happen or they're in heaven or the it's it's a really fascinating, show and fascinating the way they wrote it. What I loved about Lost that you don't see in a lot of new shows is every episode sort of left you, you know, with a quandary and a puzzle. It it was it was amazing how they did that. Something new would enter in you. What's that ghost thing? What is that? What what's going and you're trying to solve the problem in your head. And, And, of course, maybe even the writers hadn't solved it at that time. Right? We don't know. Right. I think I think that's kinda what happened is that the writers were really great at at raising more and more questions about what is the nature of this island. Yeah. And not as and this is a common thing. Some writers are really great at creating that feeling of, you know, this is a vast universe, you know, where things have been happening for way outside the boundaries of the story, and they don't quite know how to end it. And some people are very good at at knowing how to end it. But I appreciate both sides of that. The the it's amazing. Well, we should move on. So that's the reason, Netflix down. Amazon Well Yeah. Go ahead. But let but let me ask you this, though. Like, again, I still wonder, can Netflix go way down? You know? Because, again, with hundreds of shows, there just might come some point where it's not they're they're not gonna be able to sustain a $12,000,000,000 production budget every year. That's right. You know, they need that to kind of generate new subscribers. And as there's more competition, you know, it's Peter Thiel's 0 to 1 thing where it's great to be a monopoly, but when they become a competition, prices are gonna have to go down. They're gonna get wrapped up like you suggested in these cable packages. And, you know, it might be it might come to a point where some of these, new networks, if you will, don't have the economics to exist. Well, here's the thing. Nobody would wanna compete against Disney. That it's a ridiculous thing. They have the biggest budget, and no one knows how to build a following for a set of characters better than Disney. And they follow it all the way to their amusement parks and to the stores and everything else. And Netflix doesn't have that. Right? They're they're, you know, they're new to the content production business over the last, you know, decade or so. Disney's been doing it for a 100 years. They've got it down. So the fact that there is a Disney plus, you know, if I'm Netflix, that's what I'm most scared of. They were scared of Amazon. Absolutely. Amazon Prime takes some of their their away. But, but, yeah, I think I think you're right. You know, it's a 0 to 1 thing and what whatever. You had 1. Right? And now you have, I don't know, point even if you have 10% market share, 20% market share, it's 0.2. And you used to have 1. And you had all the United States, so your growth is overseas, but how much are you gonna charge? So it's a very complicated issue. And I love Netflix, and I let let me you know, I know the management team. The management team is outstanding. These are great people. But even a well run business eventually runs flat into, you know, competition that is undeniably difficult in Disney plus. You know? Look. If you're a home with kids and the kids are on Disney plus during this time and it comes to you know, things are tight and you start looking at the bills you can cut, well, here's, you know, $25 a month we can cut. Nobody really watched Netflix last month. We watched one thing, and it's available on Amazon Prime, and we kinda get that for free anyway because we already paid Prime. People don't think about Amazon Prime as free, but it's free. It's free. Right. It's because everyone's got Prime. So, so now Disney Plus and Prime, good enough. It's very interesting, isn't it? Very, very Right. Like, if I if I and this will lead into the next, thing in your article. But if I had if I had only if I could only pick 1, I would definitely pick Amazon Prime because it's got, for instance, all the HBO shows. It's got, you know, almost every show that's ever existed except for the Netflix shows. That's right. So it's interesting. So your next one and you say this is obvious and double obvious, but Amazon is obviously gonna benefit in this post COVID era. It it's kind of benefiting right now. They're hiring 100 of thousands of new workers. I'm ordering every you know, right now, the primary expense for people is, I would say, food, TV, and maybe books. I've been ordering books. And Amazon is the only and and and supplements, by the way. Vitamin supplements. Right. And Amazon is the only place where I order everything. And and even they say they can't even fulfill all the demand for the first time ever. I'm getting shipments delayed, but I still would rather order from Amazon than any other website. So so and and their stock, by the way, wasn't hit as much. Like, it went down with the market due to just the normal flight, to cash, but they're gonna quickly get back to all time highs probably faster than any other stock on the market. They're they're nearing their all time high, right now. I mean, nearing, you know, very close. And and and, and and by the way, so is Microsoft and Apple and, actually, Facebook isn't down that much. I mean, we could go through these these FAANG stocks. AMD, it continues nearing its all time high. It popped up a little above that, but it's around, I don't know, close to $50, and it topped out at 57 or something. So that's fascinating. I didn't know that. Yeah. Yeah. So so it's very interesting in weak times to watch the strong stocks. Why is that? Because there's a flight to quality, and people are perceiving certain things as quality. And people are going to perceive Amazon, let's let's flip it around. Amazon's got 10 to 12% of the overall US retail market. Well, right now, with all stores closed, that number, I don't know, went to 24%, 25%. Right now Alright. But that You know, some number like that. Right? It had to it had to double, maybe more, because Macy's is closed. Now Macy's online is open, but all of Macy's stores, whatever it is, 1800, crazy number, are closed. They laid off their, you know, a 150, 200,000 workers. So all you have to do is step back and say, who's hiring? Well, Amazon is trying to hire 100 of thousands of workers to throw in their warehouses because they can't keep up. Amazon Prime that was 2 days is was one day is now 4 or 5 days. Walmart is hiring. Walmart's hiring. They're over 1. Is hiring, like, 600,000 people. They're hiring in their stores because they can keep their stores open because they sell food. So if you absolutely need to get out of the house, and you shouldn't go there, by the way. I'm not promoting this at all. It's the opposite of what you should do. But people can only go to certain stores. You can't go to Macy's. You, you know, you can't go to many stores, but you can go to Walmart. And people are finding Walmart online. So this has been good for Walmart. It's good for Amazon. Surprisingly good for CVS, who's hiring a 100,000 workers also. Why? It's one of the few stores that are open. And drugstores actually have everything. They have food. They have drugs. They have a bunch of other stuff. So people are going there. So so what happens is people, real quickly. People Yeah. Get into a habit during these 8 weeks, let's say, with however long it's gonna be, 6, 8, 10 weeks, and they get into a habit of doing something they haven't done before. And once they get into the habit, they're not just gonna walk away a 100%. Maybe they walk away 50 or 60 or 70%, but people who had rarely used Amazon are now using it every day. That won't end. That won't end. Macy's will never get all of its customers back in its stores. Never gonna happen. With all due respect to Macy's. Yeah. I agree with that. And, you know, the combination of Amazon up and and not only movie theaters down, but, basically, every retail storefront down Yeah. Is gonna be very interesting. So I think there's gonna be, there's there's sort of unknown unknowns as Donald Rumsfeld would say. Like, we don't know what's gonna happen next, but, you know, stores and particularly movie theaters are very large spaces. And I kinda see what's going to happen or or one possibility is there's no more movies in the movie theater, but maybe 20 restaurants close down the actual restaurant part where people sit, but they open up, you know, in a movie theater, 20 kitchens for different restaurants to deliver. And there's no more seating. It could be. But now we just have the kitchens, you know, because the the space is gonna have to be transformed somehow or not. I mean, there could be just like New York City could turn into a ghost town of storefronts. Well, you know empty movie theaters. The interesting thing is, I saw an analysis maybe a year ago of the retail space, the brick and mortar retail space in the US versus anywhere else in the world, say Europe. And our per capita retail space is 2 or 3 or 4 times almost anywhere else you look in the world. And and that never made any sense. It never made any sense. We were just a big consumer spending society that, you know, like to walk through this retail space, but it's probably not sustainable forever. And so if you think about this, what's happening now over 8 weeks was always going to happen. That is Amazon was always gonna take a larger percent of retail from 10 or 12% to 20 or 30%. If I said that was out 20 years from now, you'd say, of course, they'll have 30% of retail, of all retail in the US, let's say, 30 years from now. But what we didn't know is that this is going to accelerate what was already happening. That's all it's doing. Your JCPenney, your same store sales have been going down, let me think, for 20 years. Right? There's there's and there's no escaping it. And by the way, closing more stores closing more stores is not a path to growth. It's still a path to death. It's just slowing it. Right? What what are the when you're closing stores, what are you doing? You're flattening the curve, just like we talk about with COVID. You're flattening the curve, but in the end, it ends up at 0. Right? You you can't grow your way out that way. I sort of feel like the phrase flattening the curve is gonna be like the phrase the long tail. Like, it's gonna be it's gonna take on this whole new meaning in in every industry. So for instance, you know, the stimulus package you could argue is flattens the curve on the destruction of the economy. So it it pushes back the amount of time we can keep the economy paused because there's just money coming into the system. Right. Which will have some sort of unusual effect, but it will at least keep the economy buoyant if it's not closed for too long. Yeah. So we've flattened the curve there. And so what you're what you're saying is closing stores is an interesting model. It it flattens the curve on the eventual death of a company or an industry. Still die. Look. Look. Look at it. Sears flattened the curve for 30 years. They continued to close stores, then they combined with Kmart and continued to close stores until they closed them all. They did they did get to their end goal. But Right. But but that really shouldn't have been the goal. That's the problem. When you see people closing stores, just run because that that that's not a way to to promote growth. It you can't grow your way that way. Right? It it it's so interesting too because, you know, the guy who bought Sears was an amazing amazingly talented hedge fund manager, Eddie Lambert, who had made billions investing his money. And and yet even the one of the smartest investors in the world like that, like, nobody would say this is a dumb guy. And yet he he quadrupled down on Sears and just just lost it all. Oh, it And it just goes to show you that the sometimes you have to look at these things not in the context of, oh, well, you know, what's the real estate worth? What's these products worth? Blah blah blah. But you have to look at the overall trends over decades and to make some of these predictions. And, you know, depending you have to zoom in to see kind of the financials and so on, but you have to zoom out to see society to to make a good decision like this. I'll I'll say something that, I've I've gotten to talk about a lot. When I when I speak at conferences. Often, I'm at a retail conference or shopping malls or these sorts of, you know, representative, people in the audience. And, you know, people kinda pooh pooh Sears, but I say, hold it. Sears was the original Amazon. They invented mail order in the early 1900. You could mail order a log cabin, and it would show up in pieces on a truck, and you could put it together. They invented mail order. You couldn't do it online yet, but they invented the catalog. They invented the idea of warehouses, and they invented the idea of shipping it direct to you. They invented it. They were Amazon. And then when Amazon came around, they didn't continue their trek. They just built more stores and got killed. How did how did they miss their own invention? I mean, they got they they literally got usurped from below starting with a bookseller that just came up. Right? That just ate their lunch, and and what they should have done is said, hold it. Our roots, our mail order, this is what we do. We're just gonna move it online and own it. They they failed miserably. I mean, they they missed the whole boat. Well, it's just like it's just like co it's like how Kodak invented digital film They did. And yet went bankrupt because of digital film. They just didn't pursue it. And even though they were the biggest innovator in the whole industry for 80 years, they they blew it. They had all the past. Okay. They had all the past. I'm gonna I'll I'll I'll touch base on codec for a second because I'm I'm I'm I'm I spent a lot of time in Rochester. I'm on the board of, board trustees of Rochester Institute Technology, and I and I and I serve with many people who are ex codec executives. And we're in the room when they were making those decisions, either at the board level or the executive level. And, Kodak's first, you know, sort of digital photography work was in the late sixties with throughout the seventies, throughout the eighties, throughout the nineties. They had all of the patents. I mean, they had done all the work. But but but 2 things always because we've got to talk about this. 2 things always came up at the exec staff meeting, which is 1, if we start to promote digital, what happens to our, you know, 90 point margin, you know, silver halide film business, and how's it gonna fill our factory? So we shouldn't go there. That that was that was 1. And 2, they failed to understand why anyone would wanna use digital. And here's what they kept coming back to. The resolution of our film is the equivalent of depending on what film you choose and, you know, what what, ASA rating, blah blah blah. You know, 10,000,000, 20,000,000, 30,000,000 pixels, whatever. I mean, it's really, really high resolution. Film had gotten very, very, very good. So they kept thinking, who would ever want to use digital? Did you ever see the picture quality? And at the time, it was like VGA, and it sucked. But they missed something that I opened with, which is Steve Jobs taught us with the, iPod actually, which is convenience Trump's quality. If you could carry all your songs in your pocket, they weren't nearly as good of a quality as you could listen to at home, but it was okay. You would do that for the convenience. And the same was true with digital. The minute you could put a camera in a phone or even just have a small digital camera and keep it with you and never have to develop film, even if the quality was far less than film, it didn't matter because the convenience trumped the quality. And that's what they they failed to see. I think there's there's 2 things out of that. 1 is if you can ever make an exponential leap in convenience in any industry, that's always gonna win. It always win. Even, like there there's even studies on this. Like, if you have a shorter commute, chances on average, you'll be less stressed than people who have a longer commute. Mhmm. So there's there's every so that means if you live across the street from work, it's better than living 2 hours away from work. Yep. And, so so the other thing is is that, I forget what the other thing was. I had 2 things. But but you get it. Yeah. Can be Yeah. Alright. We should go on. There's so many things here Yeah. That we should fly through because we should there's some Yeah. Yeah. Later on. Right? Yeah. So I'll skip around a little bit too. So this one, I I don't necessarily agree with, but let let's talk about it. So IPOs, which are the way companies go public on the stock market Mhmm. You're saying that's gonna be down Just for 2020. So sure. Be yeah. Okay. Just for 2020. That could be because we're gonna have, you know, essentially, 6,000,000,000,000 extra cash floating around the economy. There's there's gotta be people are gonna need an outlet. There's gonna be a demand for hot new investments. So if somebody's you know, whatever the hot new fields are, we we can't really predict. But if there's a a company coming out of one of these fields and it decides to go public to get to take money from the public, the public's gonna have the cash at some point because of the stimulus to invest. It's a it's a very, very good point, actually. I think that's a that's a good point. Here's my concern. First of all, a lot of the companies that were lined up to go public, I'm gonna choose WeWork, but I could choose 5 others. Right? Should never go public. Right? In fact, WeWork's in real trouble because, as you know, these small companies they lease to, if you haven't read, in the last few weeks, they've just said, we can't pay our rent. Throw us out. We don't care. In fact, we're working from home, and it's kind of working. We work as well. There's a lot of those companies that were kinda lined up to go public at very high valuations. And, I think there's a lot of Even Airbnb. Airbnb. Even Airbnb. Raise a $1,000,000,000 to stay alive. So for example lower valuation than their prior round. That's right. That that's exactly right. And, you know, and and even though Airbnb is a is a great company and it was a great business model, on the one hand, it might you know, the the new normal, which might involve less travel for a significant amount of time, might negatively affect Airbnb. So we it's very there's a lot of uncertainty even in these, like, well run companies. That's exactly right. So so look. I IPOs are market psychology, as you know. It's it's first of all, cash on the side. Right? Is there money on the side? And number 2 and, actually, big money on the side, hedge funds and banks, etcetera. And number 2, it's a market psychology. Are we ready to put money to work in more high risk kinds of ventures rather than flight to safety? And I think this year is gonna be a little flight to safety just because of the psychology just because of the psychology. People are and and the second reason is the market is down enough where there's some real buys, real buys out there that are worth getting into, where we haven't seen that in a decade. Right. Like, I, you know, I mostly invest in private companies. And for the first time now in about 5 or 6 years, maybe even longer, may yeah. Like, 7 or 8 years. For the first time now, I would rather invest in some of these public opportunities right now than a private company that's illiquid. There's a lot of problems with investing in private companies. I would always rather invest in a public company. But for the past few years, they've been there's been no real interesting opportunities. Yeah. Right. It was everything was we were all priced out. Well, right now, we're priced in. There was a great great article in The Wall Street Journal today. It's like now is the time to buy stocks. Right? You might not see certain look. Some companies were were cut by 80 or 90%. And you go, this is a fundamentally good company. They have cash. They're now trading below their cash value. This is dumb. Like, nobody's watching. Right? Yeah. Now is the time to get in. And so your risk reward there is so, is so much on your side that there's just no reason for people to jump into into IPOs this year. So I think IPOs you know, traditionally, when the IPO market closes, it kinda closes for a year or so. So my sense is it's closed for this year. It'll open up next year, but we'll see. Your point is well taken. 6,000,000,000,000 is a lot of money. It's gotta go somewhere, and our kids will Yeah. All of them all. Whenever there's any kind of financial crisis. So the new normal always affects the stock market. So after 2001, 2002, the IPO market was never never returned to 2,000 levels or 1999 levels. And after the financial crisis, the IPO market never really returned to prior to the financial crisis levels. So we'll see what happens. We'll see. Very good. Yeah. Now now the next one, skipping around a little bit again, but the next one, transportation down. I think that's sort of obvious traffic down. That's sort of obvious. But the question a lot of people have is, will there ever be a point where, you know, airlines, airplanes are as full and as busy as they once were? So let's say airplane represents the ultimate in transportation because it's the most expensive. It's the most difficult. It's the most expensive to produce. So will airplanes airlines ever really bet get back to where they were? So it's a great question. So here I was talking about, obviously, local transportation. Later, I cover business travel, specifically on airlines, and I'm gonna say that airlines will never recover. And the reason is, for the first time ever, people have figured out that you can actually have a lot of meetings, remotely like this and that they work now. They didn't work 20 years ago. Right? Last time we really did this was 911, but they work now. And so number 1, if you're at a large company, the first thing I'm gonna do, right, if I'm the CFO, I slash the t and e budget by 30%. And now you have to in order for you to travel, you have to say, I literally need to be there in person. I cannot you have to prove that you cannot do this via Zoom or whatever. So, if if that's gonna be the bar, 30% of these meetings are gonna happen this way, you know, remotely. And that's actually good. It's good for everyone but the airlines. Right? Because if you think about it from a time perspective, we would all get on a plane, spend a day getting there, stay overnight, go to the meeting in the morning, and fly back, let's say. Right? Kill 2 days for a 1 hour meeting. And and by the way, have you ever traveled to a meeting that actually generated more money for you? Well I I don't think I don't think I ever have, actually. I don't think I've ever flown to a meeting to visit a potential client. And and back in days when I was more in sales and stuff, I don't think I've ever had a for travel meeting that resulted in more money for me, ultimately. Well, look. I I'd say, occasionally, there is a time when you just need to sit in the room and look at each other's eyes and really be there and hammer out some real problem. Right? That that ends up that results in an order. And there's nothing like, as they say, press the flesh. But 90% of these meetings probably don't need it. And and this has forced everyone, including everyone in sales, to figure out how to sell over Zoom. And you know what? They're figuring it out. And now that they figured it out and they can make I'm gonna say, they can have 5 meetings a day and make potentially 5 sales as opposed to one over 2 days, you're going to find that that business travel has cut back 20 or 30%, maybe forever. Good for the environment as well. Not good for airlines. So the airlines and Boeing I talk about Boeing here. You know, Boeing's got all these 737 Maxes sitting on the side, and people were really racing. Please send them to us. We're dying here. We're dying. Southwest, we need these planes. You know what they're all doing now? They're canceling them, and they can because, these 737s were not delivered on time. Therefore, you could just say, I never want them. So Boeing, who's got 100 of these things, like, 4 or 500 or something sitting ready to be delivered, I don't think anyone's gonna want the delivery. They're gonna say, we I That's my guess. Be great? You know what would be great? Is if some airstrip or some airport goes out of business, and there's all all these extra Boeing 730 Sevens, and they turn them into these, horizontal apartment buildings, basically. And you just have, like, a whole little mini city on an ex air airport that's made up of Boeing 7 30 sevens for all your stores and all your homes and problem is that that particular little apartment that could have been built for a 150 k is about a 150,000,000. So it's it's Right. It's it's slightly overpriced. But it's already built, though. So they've got a It's a sunk cost. The big Airbnbs. It's a sunk cost. Yeah. I mean, you know, Boeing is is a you know, they've got a real problem. Airlines have a real problem. Many of the airlines may go bankrupt again. I mean, they just do not have the cash to see this through, and their business won't recover in in in in any meaningful way. It took many years after 911 to recover. I don't think it ever recovers this time because today, we do have a way to have these meetings. So, anyway, I think that's fascinating thing. So so retail brick and mortar shopping, which we've touched upon before, but I agree with you down. But the question is down forever? I I sort of think, at least in urban areas, down down forever. Like Down forever. I own a I own a storefront place. It's a it's a comedy club, so it's not it's not retail. But, I own a storefront place in New York City, but I'm so I'm familiar with a lot of the other, retail owners in the area. Everyone is out of business. And by the way, if you get a small business loan, a lot of those people are considering just pocketing the small business loan, you know, and still getting rid of the business. So the reason they're out of I'm gonna ask you. Is the reason they're out of business is that they were on the brink of going out of business anyway. It was always touch and go. Well well, that's a great point because a lot of them for a lot of them, it was always touch and go. I mean, the average restaurant had 16 days of cash in the bank. So it was always touch and go for almost every restaurant. And now they're gonna get this stimulus. Every owner I'm seeing now is smiling, you know, ear to ear because they're gonna get these these, you know, these stimulus loans. And I'm not so sure. I haven't really had someone say, oh, yeah. We're just gonna put in the money and shut down this. I haven't had anyone say that. But, my suspicion is everybody's just gonna put the money in their pockets. And and they'll go into the economy. They'll spend it or whatever, but not in the way the government intended, which is kind of par for the course when when the government makes huge $1,000,000,000,000 decisions. But I just don't see like like, put it another way. There I don't know anybody who is saying to me, man, I can't wait for the lockdown to be over because then I'm gonna finally start my pizza restaurant in New York City. Like, nobody is saying that. But here's why it's actually good for the for the business as a whole. It turns out if you are a restaurant that only had 16 days of cash, the problem is a supply and demand issue. Right? That is, there are too many restaurants and not enough people going to them. Right? It it just didn't balance out. And so when you flip that, and let's say 30% of restaurants close in New York City. Let's just say the 70% that are open are going to end up being incredibly busy incredibly busy because they gotta take basically the same amount of people over time. Right? And and they'll be more profitable than they've ever been. Right? The the reason a lot of these businesses are hanging on by by a thread, obviously, some not well run, is just supply and demand. It's too easy to open a restaurant. Everyone thinks they can do it. And the best way to lose the most amount of money is to open a restaurant, as you know. The the best way to take $10,000,000 Or or and make it buy an airline. Or buy an airline, right, or buy a winery, which a lot of people do. So, anyway, I think it's all it's all fascinating. I think a lot of these things are gonna close. A lot of brick and mortar retail is gonna close. But, we've we've already some restaurants in the Bay Area have announced we're not coming back. This Clark's Burgers, it's been open for 75 years. It it's on El Camino Real in in Mountain View said, we're not gonna reopen. We were already hanging on by a thread. We're done. We we're just we're we're closed, and we're forever closed, and goodbye. Well, which begs the question, and this goes along with several trends, commercial real estate is gonna go down. In fact, commercial real estate, I I think, is in, in could be a may the next major shock to the economy, let's say, 2 or 3 months after the economy reopens because storefronts that have been delaying rent anyway are just gonna close down and not pay rent. And and a lot of and because of remote working, a lot of offices are just gonna shut down and not not pay rent. You know, there's there's these no eviction, you know, laws in many states now where you can't get evicted during this time. And so the landlords think, oh, I'm gonna get my 3 months rent, you know, at the end of this. No. I think people are just gonna shut down. And and then commercial real estate, which is heavily leveraged, that's that might be another multi $100,000,000,000 ballot. It it it is a problem in commercial real estate. The values have been very, very high as you know, New York City being one of the highest. But but, the interesting thing is is this. I've talked to many companies over the last couple of weeks who said, we're gonna delay our expansion because we think we can allow 20% of our workforce to work from home and rotate, and that will delay our expansion by 2 or 3 years. Well, how does that affect the real estate market? Right? If everyone doesn't actually have to have a desk, but they can have a shared, sort of a shared desk or shared cube, it because working from home is it turns out to be fine and people don't, you know, screw around. They're actually on video. They're doing work. So, so I think, businesses are going to find ways immediately when they come back to cut costs. Travel and real estate are the 2 costs. They're not gonna expand. They're gonna cut back. And and, again, people are learning that this can work good enough. And real estate is one of the big costs for businesses. So, you know, cut the physical plant down. Right. Right. So there's there's pros and cons there's pros and cons to this. And and the long run, as you said before before, which each which with each of these items, it's just accelerating. So people were probably trending towards fewer offices anyway Yep. And business models like WeWork. But now they're realizing remote rather than rather than simply working in a WeWork, we could just do remote just as well and really save money. Same thing with business travel and so on. The flip side of that when you when we accelerate it is that, you know, you have a a highly leveraged commercial real estate industry that that revolves around lending and and interest rates and so on, and that's just gonna collapse. And, you know, I don't think the banks or the hedge funds are as leveraged as they were in 2,008, but we'll we we don't really know what the domino effect is gonna be of essentially a bunch of restaurants not paying their their rent on time. Or or or, you know, who knows? 50% of WeWork clients not paying their rent and probably never will pay their rent. They went home and they stayed home, and they're finding, why should I pay that rent ever again? Sue me. You know, kind of thing. I I mean, I think I I don't know if I have it in here. I can't remember. I I mean, I think WeWork is done. They probably should have been done. Yes. You know, never buy high and sell low, which is their business. Right? Pay this much for you know, pay this this huge amount to to to lease an entire floor and then, sublease it at about half that rate. That makes no sense. You you can't make that up in volume. In fact, the more volume you do, the worse it gets. Right? So all you're doing is taking money from SoftBank and giving it to little companies. Right? That's basically what you're doing. You're like a little bank. And now that the little companies dry up and walk away, and by the way, they were paying commissions, if you if you looked at it, that sometimes were equal to the salesperson to 1 year's worth of rent from the little company. The little company come in and rent a desk or 2 or 3, and the salesperson would get the entire year's rent as the commission. So the the whole model is flawed. Like, from from from day 1, I don't know how anyone thought this was a good model. And, Tony Malcolm's a friend. He he runs the Empire State Building. You may know, Malcolm Properties. And Tony famously in New York City, as you know, I don't know, a very large percentage in New York now is kind of WeWork, sub rentals. Right? Tony said I didn't know that. Yeah. And and Like, how much of the Empire State Building is WeWork? 0. Tony refused to lease to them. He says, I don't care what you're gonna pay me. It is a bad business model if I'm gonna take my beautiful, you know, you know, well priced real estate and allow you to sublease it for less than I lease it for. It's it's gonna end badly. I'm not gonna do it. And so he famously said this, and the other big real estate, you know, holders in New York City laughed at him and said, well, there you go, Tony. You're wrong. And he goes, no. Time will time will play this out. I will be right. Because the other thing he didn't like is he says, if WeWork ever just stop paying and they've got 8 floors of your 20 story building, what do you do? What now what do you do with the people who are sitting there? WeWork just stops paying and leaves, but the people are still at the desks. You take bring them to police and take them out. They're not gonna pay you. Well, now what do you do with the 8th floor? So he just said, this is I do not want this kind of company in here that is taking money from SoftBank and essentially handing it to to start ups. This is a bad model. I want nothing to do with it. So he's very famous for doing that, and he's gonna turn out to be extremely right. Very savvy. Think of, have you talked to him since this happened? What does he think of commercial real estate? You know, I haven't asked him in the last few weeks. I will do that. I think that well, first of all, the Empire State Building is a premier property, so it's in a unique position. Right? You wanna be in the Empire State Building. Right? But if you've got non premier or class b office space, I think, you know, those are always the ones that suffer. Class a, you're fine because it's high quality companies that that have an image to protect. Right? It's once you get to this class b stuff and the startup stuff, that's the stuff that falls out. And that's easily 50% of New York City of Manhattan. Real estate is not class a. Right? Not all of it's class a. So that's where there's gonna be a problem. And all that 50% falls out and the bottom of that market falls out. But the class a stuff, high quality stuff, you know, you're in Rockefeller Center, you're in the Empire State Building, you know, you're in the Freedom Tower. It's fine. It's the the those are gonna be fine. And they're long term leases also. Here's 4 in a row that I disagree with you on. Good. So your first one is and I and I hate to say it, but I disagree on this, but your first one is New York City up. And you say it always bounces back always. And look. I was in the World Trade Center on 911. I lived on Wall Street during the financial crisis. I've kinda have this habit of being at ground 0. And New York City, unfortunately, is always gonna be is ground 0 for every world crisis like this, and I'm sick of it. And I'm a New Yorker. I'm sick of New York. I'm finally I'm at my I'm at my end. Like, I would consider moving out of New York City. And if I'm willing to consider that, everybody is considering that. And I don't and I am particularly with the rise of remote and the expenses of New York City apartments, I just don't see New York City bouncing back in the same way. Well, that's a very good question. Look. We could say this about London. We could say it about Tokyo. We could say it about Paris. We could say it about a lot for a lot of different reasons. Right? Whether it was price or it was the war or whatever the case is. But, traditionally, that's never panned out. The the big high quality big cities in the world, you know, yes, a bunch of people move out, and then others move in as the prices come down and say, I always wanted to be part of the Manhattan scene, let's say, or the Bronx or whatever it is. So, we've said this about the Bay Area, by the way, for 20 years. Oh, it's overcrowded, so people are leaving. Yeah. People are leaving, but more people are coming in at an even faster rate. So, so there's just no history of the world. Like I said, even in the cities in Germany, even the cities in Europe that were bombed are today's largest cities, some of them in the world and and financial centers of Europe. So the data, you know, shows that, people do, come back to these cities, and New York's had its ups and downs. But in the end, it's, you know, it's the center of Broadway and the center of the financial world of the world of the world. But here's And that doesn't change. Here's the one fact, though, that I'll always think of before buying a place or rent even renting a place in New York City is right now, as we're as we're speaking, almost 50% of the deaths in the country from coronavirus are in New York City. Yes. And and so I'm always gonna be thinking in the back of my head, like, if I buy now and I'm living here when I'm 70 or 80 years old Pause up. I gonna be a pandemic casualty? Yeah. Yes. Yes. You are. But I'm so let's say you leave. Okay? You sell your place, you whatever the case is. You leave. There is someone just graduating from college who is dying to get into the New York scene for whatever reason, probably financial services. Right? Who would die to finally be able to afford something that's now 30% less expensive than it was a year ago. And they're gonna come right in underneath and go, I don't know. I'm gonna be 70, 50 years from now. I don't care. Yeah. So not worried. Alright. We'll see. We'll see. I'll I'll we could do an over under on that one. Yeah. Then, you say let me see here. Drinking is up. Drink drinking is up. That one, I believe in. Yeah. You know you know what's also up huge is marijuana. They though they actually stayed open recreationally because they were essential services. And you know what? They they deal with anxiety. People have legitimate use for for pot this this period. Same with alcohol. Here's the thing about, this period is that there's also a right now, there's a global condoms shortage because all the condoms are made by this, factory in Malaysia, which is in lockdown right now. So there's basically 300,000,000 condoms out of circulation right now, and drinking is up huge all across the country. Result is pregnancy's up. Yeah. Pregnancy's up. Like, the the next baby boom is fueled by basically drunken sex accidents. Well, many of them have been, by the way. It it but I I bet you it'll be a different kind of baby boom than the last baby boom. Those were all heroes coming back That's and and meeting their wives for the first time in years, and now it's a little different. You say vacations vacations up. Yeah. I don't know, man. I'm not I'm not going I'm not going to Italy anytime soon. You might not go to Italy, but you're going to find places that you wanna go to that look safe, that are that are far out of the way, not necessarily a big city, and you're gonna go, okay. I'm I I gotta get out. I gotta get out. I've been in this house too long. I've been to Central Park a 1000 times down the same paths. We are going somewhere, and you're gonna get on a plane and do it. And you're gonna wear the mask. You're gonna clean your seat. You're gonna be more thoughtful about the way we interact with people, but we're gonna go. Because humans in the end love experiences, and we're not getting those experiences right now. We're getting bored with Zoom or whatever we're doing. So I think, I've talked to more people who said, I've watched everything on Netflix I ever wanna watch. I I'm running out of things to do. I've read books. I played games. I wanna get on a plane and just go somewhere. So I think you're gonna find people do and that these experiences really matter even more than they used to. In fact, it's going to matter more than working more, if that makes sense. Rather than I'm gonna work an extra week, I'm I'm gonna go for an experience. Right. I do think I do think that the, the work slash vacation shift is going to change because people now are realizing, oh, there are other parts of life that I enjoy, which is for one thing, not working in many cases. Right. So so, you know, and that could skew towards vacations, but we'll see. But this one, you said you're neutral on cruises. Are you kidding me? Like, crew I'm are you ever gonna go on a cruise? Like, cruises are disgusting now. You could get trapped on a cruise with every with all the other people waiting on the buffet line all all the time, and you're just gonna get coronavirus through the ventilators the the entire time you're locked down. Well, here's here's why I said neutral is that they're gonna come back to where they were, but it'll take a few years. So we saw this in 911, and then we saw it afterwards several times when, either a cruise ship sank or ran aground or or or had other viruses. Right? This has happened before, and we know that they can spread very quickly because of the buffet line and a a bunch of other things. But in the end, people go on cruises. Now maybe not you, but the thing with a cruise is for a family that can't afford a lot, a middle class family for 299, 399, 499, you can get an internal room at, you know, $400 a person and take your family, and it includes the food for a week and go to different ports. There is no cheaper way to get an experience, and that's why cruises have done very well. And by the way, there's high end cruises, which I I I note here is smaller ships will have more appeal. Right? The smaller ships are expensive. They're $25100 a person. But but you cannot beat, you know, the $400 for a week for a cruise, for food and everything. You can't go to Disneyland for that. You can't go anywhere for that. So Food and a and a slight chance you get the next pandemic. Welcome aboard, sir. Slight chance. I I think I think that you're welcome aboard. I think they'll work on, more hygiene. One of the things they found with the closed cruise ships is that they were spreading the virus simply by bringing the food to everybody, and then the workers were getting it, and then the workers were spreading it to everybody else. So even though you stayed in your room, you were taking in a tray of food and putting out a tray of food and moving the virus that way. Right? It's really fascinating. Ventilation can be can be cleaned, very, very easily. You can use UV cleaners and other things, and I suspect cruise ships will put those in. They're not expensive. It's really easy to kill virus in HVAC. Not a problem. We know how to do this. So so you say, manufacturing down. I don't quite agree with that because, first off, when this lockdown ends, there's gonna be a mini surge in manufacturing just be like, take condoms for instance. 300,000,000 condoms are gonna get bought immediately. Right. And, you know, there's there's gonna be some industries where people are gonna just there's pent up demand. So manufacturing's gonna have a mini surge, and then the stimulus will hit, let's say, within 4 to 6 months, and you'll see see some Americans don't save money, so you'll see some demand just from the stimulus. So and I think that carries over the the 2 or 3 years you suggest Yeah. It could be. Yeah. Good good point. Look. I I think consumer demand will be down because consumer demand is driven by psychology, both cash and psychology. And people, while they will get some cash and stimulus, their 4 zero one k's are down by 30%, 40% in some cases. When they see their 4 zero one k down, they go, I think we're gonna hold back a little bit on our consumer spend. And if everyone holds back just 10%, that's a huge impact on on on on on manufacturing. I do think, you the next thing tied to that, though, is automation, right, which is kind of interesting. Yeah. Yeah. Because automation you know? And And we had this discussion last time. We were talking about at the time, we're talking about Andrew Yang and automation, and is this gonna be a negative? But, clearly, now nobody is arguing anymore. Automation is gonna be a good thing for society. Just look at, like, automation in health care. Do you robots can't get viruses. So if a robot could or AI could kind of analyze a patient and minimize human you know, doctors and health care workers touching that patient, it's it's a good thing. If, you know, the less human contact on on on on other humans, that's gonna be encouraged. So AI, automation, robots, drones And onshore. And so on. And onshoring. Automation allows us to onshore, and everyone's supply chain was wrecked because of this, still is. So I think you're going to see a real push for onshoring now, and we can onshore with automation for about the cost of making it in China with people and putting it on a ship and bringing it here. And you I think you're gonna see a lot of disrupted supply chains where people start thinking about on shoring or near shoring and, and making sure they have second sources for everything they do. So this is an interesting one. Higher education neutral. I've had this discussion with a couple people. It's unclear because all the kids just got sent home from college, and and told, oh, you still need to pay just as much tuition. I don't know. And and there's plenty of good online courses, for free. Why do you think higher education might might survive? Yeah. Great question. Or you can do that. So so I think that what higher education is going to learn from this is that they can have some of their degree programs that are half online and half on campus. One of the things, you know, being on the board of a university, with 20,000 students, one of the things we hear from the students is it's they're getting their education, by the way. They're getting their education. They're doing their things online. They're gonna get their degrees. What they miss is all the non school stuff. Right? Is being with their friends, being in the dorms, being in the clubs, doing the things together. That's interesting. That's the thing they miss the most because the school continues to go on, but all they've got left is the school stuff. That's fascinating. That's a fascinating feedback from actual students. So I think what you're going to see is, is a recognition that we can teach online, that you can learn online, that we could dramatically lower the cost of education by online, but that a 100% online doesn't allow the kid to grow up. Because a lot of that grow up for all of us was going to college and, you know, learning how to eat and get your hair done and, you know, whatever else you had to do and interact with people and live with people. You had to do that all of a sudden. And so I think at least half of the time will be spent on a college campus, even in a reduced fee kind of situation where you take half your courses online and half on campus because you can't beat that on campus vibe that happens. And that's needed when you're, you know, 18, 19, 20, 21. So what what do you think are a couple of business models? Like, let's say you're a young person. You're you're, you know, finishing with your your first or whatever job or you just got laid off, and now you're thinking, oh, maybe this is a time to be an entrepreneur. What do you think are gonna be some, you know, 2 or 3 entrepreneurial models that might be successful even in the short term? Well, well, I'm not sure it's a great time to be an entrepreneur because, typically, after these times, you know, the start up funding gets gets challenged because, as as I mentioned here, no venture firm actually wants to call their LPs for a capital call this week. It's just not. I I I agree with that, but but I would say lots of start ups are are are profitable fairly quickly. Like, if I'm not building, if I'm not building a whole system that takes a year to build and a year to build the Salesforce and blah blah blah, I could just you know, for instance, I could launch a service company that I could productize later, and service companies tend to be profitable almost immediately. So there there's there's models that are So look. You gotta profitable. I think you gotta look for services, that take I don't wanna say take advantage, but take advantage of the post COVID world. Right? People are going to be, more thoughtful, more concerned about cleanliness than they ever have been, I'll say, at least in the United States. Right? We Unless you're unless you're living in my home, no one here seems to be able to care about cleanliness. People are gonna be wash well, you're only seeing each other, but people are gonna be washing their hands. They're gonna be distancing. They're not gonna be shaking hands for a very long time. We're gonna we're gonna have this memory of this time, right, Just as they did after the Spanish flu. Everybody, you know, stayed away from each other. So I think that any business that can profit on that. So whether it's UV I'm making it up. Like a UV cleaning wand. Obviously, there's many of them out there, but that's an example of a business that's going to sell a 100 times more than they ever sold before because people are going, I gotta clean my phone. In fact, we've all seen the videos now how dirty our phones are. So we all want phone cleaners. Of course, we can clean our phone with just soap and water and with Lysol wipes if you can get them, etcetera. But nevertheless, everything around clean is going to be seen as as cool, not stupid. We've all been on planes for years. In fact, I've been flying, you know, my whole life. And my wife, of course, always would get on the plane and take out her wipes and clean the seat and clean everything. And I would look at her and go, this is embarrassing. Maybe I'll hide in the bathroom while she does this. Right? This is a very bad I don't want anyone to nowhere together at this one moment in time. Otherwise, very proud of her. But she was always this way. And now she's the one who looks brilliant and I'm the one who looks stupid. So I, you know, I start cleaning everything around me now. And I think that so I think there's an opportunity to take to take advantage of that. There's an opportunity to take advantage of the entire change in the in the retail brick and mortar space. Right? As you said, there's gonna be amazing storefronts that are available, and some of them are going to be available at $0.10 on the dollar because that happened last time in 'one. We saw some commercial properties, $0.10 on the dollar because, you know, just anyone come in. Right? So there'll be some tremendous opportunities. And at $0.10 on the dollar, there might be something that could go in there that would be quite profitable. But but but but, you know, at $200,000 a month for that small storefront in Times Square, you can't you can't sell enough goods to to make that up. Right? That was a loss leader. F. E. O. Schwarz had the store there. It was a loss leader. You could never make money on that on that retail presence. So at 10¢ on the dollar, you can't. So there'll be opportunities there. There'll be opportunities in automation and robotics. We're seeing more of that. I mean, NightScope makes these robots that patrol parking lots. You know, that's a great use of robots. A great use of robots. It's safe. Nobody wants to do the job anyway. We're gonna see more robots in automation factories, more AI. Every CEO is realizing that the more AI I have, the less people I have, and AI doesn't get sick. It just keeps going. Robots and AI keep doing the work even in COVID times. And if you had a factory that was a 100% roboticized, pretty much you're still making goods right now. If you've got Tesla that has 4,000 people on the floor in Fremont, you shut down and you laid off all your workers. Actually, they furloughed their workers today. So, why? Because you can't make a car. You can't make a car. Even with all the automation, they can't make a car. Right? What about start ups in the privacy space? Because, obviously, privacy is gonna be down, and there's gonna be more and big date with so the flip side of that is big data. So there's gonna be more opportunity. There's gonna be more data out there than ever. So there's clearly there's gonna be, startups in security, storage, and so on. But I wonder if there's gonna be more AI analysis of different kinds of of data about humans. There'll be much more AI analysis about data in humans, particularly finding, these sorts of trends and and spotting them when they come out and then spotting for instance, AI is being put to the test right now, taking as much data, say, from 23 andMe and other places to say, why do some people, even at 25 years old, die from this, yet 80% of people never have even a symptom? How how can that how can it be the same thing? How is this happening? Is there something genetic in you? Is there something else, a predisposition? Was it smoking? But something's different. Right? Something's happening. Yeah. How can it kill one person and not kill another? We get that if you're 90. Right? But we don't get it if you're 25. So so AI is being applied to that. I I think that this privacy thing is interesting. You know, the era of big government sort of already been here, right, and and watching over us, but many governors over the last week have said, we're gonna start going back to work when we can do very simple 5 minute tests on people every few days, and and they'll wear a badge, and they'll guarantee that they don't have this thing. Now, technically, that's a very good thing to do. I'm just saying epidemiology right. Epidemiologically, yeah, they're very good thing to do. But from a privacy thing, I think the ACLU and people are gonna say, this is way too much invasion of privacy that if I wanna go to the office, I have to have a badge that says I was tested this morning when I'm COVID free. You know, this is a very we're going down a dangerous road. And, you know, to some extent, Germany went down that road. Germany is going down this road, by the way. They're gonna do this. To some extent, there was talk of doing this around the AIDS, you know, crisis, and and and and you had to be tested and all of that. So now we're talking about doing it Singapore and South Korea, do this to the max right now? Yes. They do. So we're talking about doing it to either states or country or the entire country, and I'm not sure how people are gonna feel about that at all. Either you're COVID free or or you're not, or you've got the plague, basically. Right? You got the badge that says, I've got the plague. It's flashing red. Stay home. Right thing to do or wrong thing to do? I don't know. So, is is there an opportunity or is the business opportunity? Yeah. The business opportunities make the tags that say whether you get COVID or not, makes the swabs. You know, there's a whole business that didn't exist a month ago. Yeah. I almost see, like, this science fiction future where some people are immune and some people are not yet immune, and the not immune have to wear masks and wait on line Right. 6 feet apart to go into a store, and the immune just walk right into the store. They're like, get out of my way. Honey, don't you wanna get the blood test? Immune. Don't you wanna get the blood test and find out maybe you had it and you're done. And now you you can go out with the I'm pretty sure I did, actually. There's Yeah. My Yeah. Tell me about that. Well well, my my you know, a lot of people seem to have had it in February in New York City and, you know, before it was a thing. And I think my wife and one of my daughters had it, and I probably got it asymptomatically just being around them all the time. In, early I'm hoping I'm immune. In early February, I had something that absolutely and I never get sick. I never get the flu. I had the flu shot. I had something that looked an awful lot like this, but it was before we were talking about it. And I was in bed. I mean, I I had this dry cough. It was very odd. I didn't have the nose dripping, but I had this dry cough. And then, you know, it cleared up in a couple of weeks, and I I was back out and and going. But but for me to be in bed and not make meetings is unusual. And my wife keeps saying, Kevin, you had it. You're you know, if you ever get the blood test, you gotta find out you had it. And there was a very good chance I had. I was in Hawaii, actually, for it was kind of a business related thing. And, and on the way there, there was a a guy in front of me, that I believe was on his way to China, of all places. Right. It was just flying through Honolulu, which sometimes they do. And he was hacking up a storm. I mean, it was it was unbelievable. Unbelievable. And it took a few days, 3 or 4 days before I really got sick. And then I really got sick. So I probably got it from him, and it's and I I and I'm not saying he had it or didn't have it because he came from didn't have it come from here, whatever. But but there's a set of circumstances that might lead me to wanna get the blood test, right, when when when I can. Yeah. So so, you know, I guess final final question is, what if there's not a new normal? Like, let's say, for whatever reason, the economic slowdown gets all political, and they they keep shutting things down for 6 months instead of 1 month. And we come back, and there's no new normal anymore. Like, all there is is there's cash from the stimulus, but there's essentially no business out there. What what's a worst case scenario for society? Sure. Worst case scenario is that everything stays shut down till we have a reasonable, you know, either medication regimen, so that people aren't dying. So you get it, but, you know, you're not gonna die, or a vaccine. Right? And a vaccine is 12 to 18 months away. Everybody's rushing it. I think we're gonna start seeing some results even this month on some of the vaccine trials. We're very good at making vaccines now, so we will have a vaccine for this, I I believe. Yes. There's some mutation Or cure. Or cure or a relative cure. That that that's right. And and and both are likely to, be in our eyesight over the next 12 months. As you know, the medical community responded. Science responded to this faster than any other virus in history because our technology is so much better today, than it was even 10 years ago. So that's what's fascinating. Right? So we will return to normal someday. Now the economic damage, I'll say something that is terribly unpopular here, but it's it's worth a calculation. If you said, instead, we just let this thing go and everybody gets it and a certain percentage of the population would have died, versus the 6 to 10 call it $10,000,000,000,000 of economic damage worldwide. It might be 20,000,000,000,000, but something like that. Rough number. It cost us about $10,000,000 to save each life. Just rough number. About 10,000,000 a life. Now I don't know what a life's worth. Maybe it's worth 1,000,000,000. Maybe it's worth a 100 k. I'm I'm not the one to judge. Right? And we as humans have decided, you can't put a price on a life. You can't put a price on a life. Right. Therefore, the 10,000,000 per life is fine. But but there will be a time in the future that the next time this comes around, some come some countries will do that calculation, and they'll decide that above a certain threshold, we just have to face what comes from, you know, this virus and whatever virus it is, new the the next one, COVID 22 or whatever. And and we're not gonna have economic collapse because many countries will not recover. So Spain, Italy, they're doling out money. They're trying to save their economy. But that money is really Germany's money because it's not their money anyway. Right? They're already bankrupt, basically. So so now the German people have to fund what's going on in Italy, Portugal, Greece, and Spain, none of which can afford to do these stimulus programs that they're doing. And if the German people say, we're not gonna take that, get out of the EU, now there's no one to pay for that. Right? This is the political sort of damage that happens from the economic damage of of of doing this. And these are very hard conversations. You can't even have this. How do you even have the conversation? Right. These are people's lives that are in danger. And if it's your if it's your mom or grandmother, you're going if she's worth $1,000,000,000. Are you crazy? Right? But but right. But but, like, let's say let's say we take the emotion out of the word death. And, look, we've all known at this point personally someone who's probably died from this or someone who knows somebody or there's a relative or whatever. And now it's looking like there's gonna be similar amount of deaths from this as flu season, which is a sin to say. You're not allowed to say that I know. Because there's there's many ways it's different from the flu, but there's some ways in which it's similar. If we had just ignored this and and never named it and it just turned out to be a, quote, unquote, oh, the worst flu season in history That's right. Then, you know, not the economy wouldn't have changed. And so maybe we wouldn't maybe we shouldn't do these economic shutdowns. I think this is you know, we're gonna have 30,000,000 people unemployed potentially and and, you know, a 30% Unemployment. Annualized drop in GDP. And a 30% unemployment rate for at least a month or 2 Yeah. Which we've never had before. And, look, economies have never shut down before. Like, this has never really happened. Right? This is an experiment. You're right. So about 6 to 700000 people die in an average year around the world from the flu that we know of, but approximately according to, World Health Organization. And, so far, 60,000 have died from this rough number. 60 to 70,000 have died from this, I I think, if my numbers are correct as of a couple of days ago. And so we're at about a tenth of a single flu season right now. It's it's an unfair comparison, but it is what it is. Had we done nothing, had the world done nothing, we might have had a couple million people die. Some number like that, 2, 3,000,000 would have been a bad flu season. Not the worst. Spanish flu was much, much worse, but it would have been a bad flu season. And we might not have we just might have called it a bad flu season, and if old people get it, it's bad. Now here's the thing in the middle that I might have sided towards, which is this. We know that it predominantly, fatalities predominantly happen for people over 60 or 65. What I might have done, and I might have gotten killed, but nevertheless as president, is I would have acted quickly and said those over 60 no longer leave the house. You're quarantined. You don't go to work. I don't care what you do. You're quarantined. Those under 60 continue to go, but social distance the best the best that you can. Maybe even wear masks. Not to save you, but in case you've got it and you're spreading it. Right? And you won't know that you have it. Right? If we did that, I believe that the death rate, the fatality rate would be approximately what it's going to be this way, and you wouldn't have shut down any of the economy. In fact, restaurants would still be open. You'd you'd be distancing. You'd have to separate the tables more. You'd, you know, you'd have to rethink it. Maybe the prices would go up. But but we would have gotten used to that normal for a period of time. And the older people who are more likely to die predominantly more likely to die, you've seen the stats in New York City, would be safe at home where they, you know, where they need to be. And, it wouldn't have been perfect, but but we might have ended up in a close to similar place. Yeah. So I think policy decisions are gonna have to be different going forward because they're gonna see this is just too much it's too much damage. Just, a, there might be more deaths from the economic you know, there's, you know, the rise in domestic abuse cases and child abuse cases Can I tell you something? Suicide. I'm gonna give you something that you don't know about, but you'll stew on. And I know about this be because my wife is in the is a medical device business. When they look at the stats in China and there are people trying to really track it down, it's hard to get real data in China. When they closed down all the hospitals and made them COVID only, all of the people who were, in line to treat strokes or upcoming potential heart attack issues or valve issues or all of these things, all those people died. They never got their treatment. They couldn't get their treatment. Right? They were locked out. It's called collateral fatalities, actually. There's a term for it. And the collateral fatalities may have been more than the people who died from COVID. I mean, we don't you know, we have to and that's happening in New York City right now. Like, if you're if you pull up to the emergency room at at one of your top hospitals that is dedicated to COVID, they turn you away. You can't come in here. And you're having a heart attack. They, you know, they they go, look. Drive up to Albany. You're dead. Doesn't matter. You're a collateral fatality. And there will be thousands of collateral fatality. And then all of their there's all of this, not urgent, but probably should treat it. You know? And there's a lot of stuff around stroke that it's not urgent, but, boy, if we don't treat this in the next few weeks, you're a ticking time bomb. Guess what? The time bomb ticks during the 8 weeks. We would have saved grandma, but now she's dead. She didn't die from COVID. She died from a stroke. Why? Well, we didn't. We knew it. We saw it, but there are no hospital that's gonna treat her anywhere in the country right now because, you know, because, you know, she's sort of asymptomatic, and we're not sure when, and probably she can wait 10 weeks. Turns out she couldn't because you don't know. So a lot of criminal damage all all around the country. Right. And, I I mean, this is even this is, for a much larger conversation about how to make policy, but I sort of feel like we went down one lane with one set of health officials kind of I don't wanna say the word bullying because they had the best intentions, and they still do. But I just I don't it's hard to know what's right, and and it's even hard for the both democrats and republicans to know what the right thing to do is. But I hope we take some some lessons from this about what went wrong and what went right. But, you know, politics, I I I would put in the down category, but that's always been in the down category, unfortunately. So who knows? Everyone's gonna be thumping their chest like we won, but there's a lot of there's a lot of debriefing that needs to happen, which I don't think will happen. Health damage, the collateral, suicide damage, the collateral alcoholism damage, is is irreparable in in in some cases. And and, look, I I I don't blame Fauci at all. I mean, this is a smart dude, right, that that fortunately Yeah. The president began to listen to. And and, he basically looked at China and said, this worked. They shut everything down, and it worked. So you do it because you have no other tools. You go, I don't know what else is gonna work. Let's do that. But looking at the data, I think we will look back, and there will be statisticians, not even epidemiologists, statisticians that look at the data and say, we could have accomplished 90% of the same result and probably just, you know, cordoned off a certain percentage of the population over 60, and it probably would have come very, very close, and we wouldn't have damaged the economy at all. And and so in the future, we will have better tools. And I think in the future, we'll be better prepared far better prepared to launch vaccines and get them to market in 6 months, not in 12 to 18. 12 to 18 is still a record, but it needs to be 6 or 3 or 2. We need to have rapid protocols to do so. We need to use AI to find the best candidates. I mean, you know, you know, we can go down. And I think we'll be better prepared for that in the future. So always good comes of these things, but 10, maybe $20,000,000,000,000 hit to the world economy is un we've never seen anything like it. World War 2 didn't have that kind of hit. Right? We don't know what this is like, but we'll figure it out and we're gonna get to the other side. It's gonna be fine. It's because that's how humans are. Right? You come out the other side, you figure it out. We're gonna be fine. Last thing, you know, look. If I'm a suffering country already, like some of the ones in Europe or in Africa or in South America, those are the ones, you know, you can't nobody's gonna throw $6,000,000,000,000 at their economy or 1,000,000,000,000. They don't have it. They can't throw anything. It just will be what it'll be. And so their economies were already on the brink of disaster. This is just gonna be too much for them to absorb. And so I feel bad for for those economies and the people who, you know, didn't make those economies. They're just there. They were born there. They live there, who are going to be in a state of poverty possibly for decades from this. And, and there's there's nothing you know, we won't have the money to give them. So it's just gonna play out the way it's gonna play out. So as usual, you know, the suffering is going to happen in kind of third world countries or poor countries. And, you know, we're the richest country on earth, and and you've got other countries in a similar position, and we'll figure our way out of it by printing more money, and and handing the bill to our children. Well and, also, I think I think there's gonna be and I'll I'll I'll take your positive pieces of that and and extend it just a little bit, but which is I think we're gonna diversify away from China, obviously, as a source of manufacturing. And some of that can go to India. Some of that could go to Africa. Some of that might go to South America. Some of that will go to these poor countries. So we'll see. I think that's that's one of the unknown unknowns, but we'll see. But, Kevin, as always, thanks for your your thoughts and insights. We're we're heading into a post COVID world, and and you've written such a great blueprint for what what's gonna happen. And, as always, so so much interesting insights from you, and I look forward to our our next talk. Yeah. It's fun. Let's, let's, see if we can get this, actually, I I guess you could post a link the medium article so people can read more because there's more there. But but it's, yeah, very fun conversation. Always great. Great to talk to you. I hope we do it again in the next, x weeks or months as we come out of this mess.
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